Seasonal Projection: Soybeans (S)
Seasonal charts can't offer a specific road map to future market moves -- they can only provide perspective to past market moves. Hence, the seasonal projection chart below should be used as a historic reference of past trends and turning points, and not for buy/sell recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
What are Seasonal Projection charts?
The seasonal projection is a weighting of four historic seasonal averages for Soybeans. Specifically, we combine the 5/10/15/20 yearly averages to form a single seasonal line. This seasonal weighted line (shown in blue) is then projected forward 21 calendar days from the outlook run date. Grey circles provide perspective for potential 7/14/21 day return projections. Low and high points over the 21-day period are highlighted in yellow and green respectfully, pointing out potential returns. The final return figure listed on the chart relates the Low to High (L2H) point or High to Low (H2L) point depending upon the Low/High historic order. Each of these return figures are posted at the bottom of the chart and should be used strictly for reference purposes only.
How to use a Seasonal Projection chart:
As mentioned above, the Seasonal Projection chart is not to be used for buy/sell recommendations. The true use for the Seasonal Projection chart is as a position sizing tool -- indicating when to trade more or less aggressively. If the seasonal projection is bullish or bearish, and this outlook corresponds with your trading system, you might consider trading more aggressively. If however, your system conflicts with the seasonal outlook, you might consider trading more conservatively. The market outlook, shown towards the top of the chart, reflects various return data points compiled into a seasonal projection. Respect the seasonal trends.
When to use a Seasonal Projection chart:
The best time to use Seasonal Projection charts is when the current Soybeans contract is highly correlated to its 5/10/15/20 yearly seasonal charts. The link below reviews whether Soybeans is accurately tracking any of its four separate seasonal time frames. Seasonally Accurate Grain Markets
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past Performance is NOT Indicative of Future Results. There is significant risk of loss investing in managed futures. This form of investment is not right for everyone. The subjective opinions expressed on this web site are solely those of the author and are not representative of the views of any other entity or individual. Click here to link to the full disclaimer.